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Asset managers stick to European and Japanese equities

Asset managers have been too optimistic in their return forecasts for European and Japanese equities over the past 18 months or so. Despite having faced disappointing returns over the past year or so, they are not yet prepared to meaningfully lower their expectations.

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PA Europe

The UK’s vote for Brexit has done little to affect fund manager sentiment. Our latest poll shows the majority of poll respondents still expect the asset class to generate returns in excess of 5% over the next 12 months. Though fund houses’ return expectations for European equities are now at their lowest since January 2015, this says more about the exuberant bullishness they had been displaying recently.

 

 

The fact that asset managers retain confidence in Japanese equities is even more striking. Even though the asset class has been building a reputation that it can only generate returns when the yen is depreciating versus other currencies, the vast majority of fund houses continue to believe returns from Japanese equities in local currency will exceed the 5% mark over the next 12 months. 

Asset managers don’t think greatly about the best performing asset class this year, and the current favourite with fund buyers: emerging market equities. Only a handful of fund management houses are convinced that the asset class will do well over the next 12 months, while most have a neutral outlook. 

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