Posted inDACH

sentiment survey 2013 q2 germany

 

 

1.)  What is your broad macroeconomic outlook?
Positive 47%
Uncertain 29%
Negative 24%
   
2.)  Re Global Emerging Market Equities, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 32%
Keep it the same / uncertain 47%
Decrease your weighting 21%
We don’t use this asset class 0%
   
3.)  Re Developed European Equities, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 50%
Keep it the same / uncertain 33%
Decrease your weighting 17%
We don’t use this asset class 0%
   
4.)  Re UK Equities, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 10%
Keep it the same / uncertain 25%
Decrease your weighting 40%
We don’t use this asset class 25%
   
5.)  Re US Equities, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 43%
Keep it the same / uncertain 43%
Decrease your weighting 14%
We don’t use this asset class 0%
   
6.)  Re Asian Equities, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 45%
Keep it the same / uncertain 25%
Decrease your weighting 20%
We don’t use this asset class 10%
   
7.)  Re Japanese Equities, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 19%
Keep it the same / uncertain 33%
Decrease your weighting 33%
We don’t use this asset class 14%
   
8.)  Re Developed Market Government Bonds, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 14%
Keep it the same / uncertain 32%
Decrease your weighting 45%
We don’t use this asset class 9%
   
9.)  Re Developed Market Corporate Bonds, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 29%
Keep it the same / uncertain 48%
Decrease your weighting 24%
We don’t use this asset class 0%
   
10.)  Re Developed Market High-yield Bonds, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 23%
Keep it the same / uncertain 36%
Decrease your weighting 32%
We don’t use this asset class 9%
   
11.)  Re Emerging Market Government Bonds, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 15%
Keep it the same / uncertain 45%
Decrease your weighting 15%
We don’t use this asset class 25%
   
12.)  Re Emerging Market Corporate Bonds, over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 38%
Keep it the same / uncertain 29%
Decrease your weighting 5%
We don’t use this asset class 29%
   
13) Do you use any form of risk-weighting in your portfolio construction?
Yes 75%
No 25%
   
14.)  Behavioural economics question: which prize would you choose?
100% chance of 650k 47%
95% chance of €800k but a 5% chance of nothing at all 53%
Note: economists value option 1 at €650k and option 2 at €760k – so a rational being should choose 2
   
15.)  Re European small caps over the next 12 months do you expect to:
Increase your weighting 53%
Keep it the same / uncertain 29%
Decrease your weighting 0%
We don’t use this asset class 18%
   
16.)  Which is the greater immediate threat?
Inflation 28%
Deflation 72%
   
17.)  There is a serious risk of inflation in:
1 year 0%
3 years 53%
5 years 47%
   
18.)  There is a serious risk of deflation in:
1 year 47%
3 years 41%
5 years 12%
   
19.)  Should investors stop basing their portfolios on government bond yields?
Yes – there are better ways of creating portfolios 21%
Not sure 29%
Keep same 50%
   
20.)  How useful are the rating agencies?
Very 38%
Not sure 31%
Not at all 31%
   
21.)  What will be the fate of the euro?
It will not exist in 2 years 0%
It will not exist in 10 years 25%
It will continue 75%
   
22.)  What should happen  to the euro?
It should stay as it is 47%
The fiscally strong states should form a separate union 47%
We should go back to one country, one currency 6%
   

 

tom@ybc.tv

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