With markets upgrading the probability of a stagflationary environment, Europe’s asset allocators assess whether to scale down portfolio risk
‘The risk/reward profile looks less compelling’
Cash allocations expected to drop as investors look to deploy capital
But that doesn’t mean they are particularly happy about it
Cash could be the wrong place to be if there’s no deal
Despite meagre returns, October saw the highest monthly flows into money market funds in over a decade at €52.5bn
Companies in the Nordic countries continue to hold the majority of their liquidity in bank accounts. And they don’t have plans to diversify, despite the threat of negative central bank interest rates being passed on to them.
Belgian fund buyers, once Europe’s most upbeat, have turned negative on most asset classes, and they have been hoarding cash. European equities is the only long-only asset class holding out against the Belgian bearishness.
Investors are turning more cautious in the face of the turmoil in the financial markets this year, according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) Fund Manager Survey, with average cash balances up at their highest weighting since November 2001.
If you had invested all your cash in dollars as a euro-based investor this year, you would have earned a better return than if you had emulated the MSCI World. Moreover, equity returns seem to have become completely tied to exchange rate movements.