HEAD OF MULTI-ASSET
LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT
Score prediction: ENGLAND 2 – GERMANY 1
And so, inevitably, England are playing Germany in the UEFA EURO 2020.
A chance to “make some history”, according to manager Gareth Southgate. Will England glide into the quarter-finals? A win would be the first major tournament knockout-stage victory over Germany since the 1966 World Cup final at Wembley.
Over 20 million viewers tuned in to watch England go head-to-head with Scotland, and while a programme showing fund managers run their portfolios on TV would be unlikely to garner quite as large an audience, we have always believed the beautiful game has much in common with investing.
Football, like running money, is competitive, team-orientated, driven by results and league tables and difficult to predict – and ultimately, far more enjoyable when you are winning.
Southgate, who missed a crucial spot-kick in the Euro ’96 defeat at Wembley, says the team always practise penalties. Figures show the best strategy to save a penalty is to stand still, with goalkeepers twice as likely to make a save if they remain in the middle rather than diving to one side or the other.
But only 2% stand their ground, due to action bias. In investment, this is the equivalent of managers feeling they need to keep trading or reacting to events to justify fees. We are keen not to be busy fools and only want to shift our portfolio when we are sure as we can be that it will generate returns for clients.
Regular readers of my punditry will know we’re positive on UK equities amid the global reflation trade. My optimism also extends to England’s prospects in the Euros.
HEAD OF PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
FINET ASSET MANAGEMENT
Score prediction: ENGLAND 1 – GERMANY 2
England v Germany – we call it a “Klassiker” and memories come up. Why?
Everybody remembers the World Cup final at Wembley on 30 July 1966 and the controversial “non” goal.
After 2:2 at the end of regular time, for the first time a World Cup final went in extra-time. And in the 101st minute, Geoff Hurst scored the most scandalous and controversial goal in football history. In the end, England won 4:2 and claimed its first and only title.
Still today, this goal is discussed between German and English fans. But, in 1995, biomechanical engineers of Oxford University conducted computer simulations and found out that the ball was 7.6cm short of completely crossing the line. It proved what everybody, at least in Germany, knew…
But in 2010, “we” had our revenge at the quarter finals in the World Cup in South Africa, when Frank Lampards goal was not allowed. The German press called it “Vengeance”.
I am really looking forward to a fantastic, fast, fair and exciting game in the “Motherland of Football”.