Posted inAnalysis

ANALYSIS: Volatility here to stay in the age of the ‘Toblerone’ market

Aside from yesterday’s tired acceptance speech, Trump hasn’t actually said anything much either.

That will soon change, of course, though the removal from his website of a statement calling for a ban on Muslims entering the US suggests he may be willing to at least tone down his rants.

While yesterday’s market bounce may have taken some by surprise, Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, suggests it was grounded in the differential between Trump’s economic and social policies.

“While Trump’s controversial rhetoric with regards to immigrants and Muslims stole the headlines, he is predictably very pro-business, promising lower income and corporation taxes,” he says.  

“With the promise of a tax repatriation scheme for multinationals, lower tax rates and higher government spending, it seems the markets are waking up to the chance of a growth driven economic period for the US”.

Still, for the immediate future at least, Scott Mather, CIO of US core strategies at Pimco, suggests greater uncertainty means higher risk premia.

“Volatility is likely to stay elevated relative to recent levels,” he says.  

“At this point, given uncertainties about Trump’s policy agenda, key government leadership positions and likely changes in foreign and trade policy – and world government and market reactions to those shifts – what is unknown about the outlook outstrips what is known.”

Admittedly, none of this may help you decide whether you should buy or sell out of risk assets, though it does suggest another period of uncomfortable volatility, especially into next year when things will REALLY start to change.

Part of the Mark Allen Group.