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Beware of the rise of the populists

Popular inconsistency

Cantrill also noted that Trump’s stated economic policies are at times conflicting and often changing, which also makes it difficult for investors to interpret the possible consequences.

“For instance, several weeks ago in an interview with the Washington Post, Donald Trump called for a total elimination of the U.S. $19 trillion debt over the next eight years, which is effectively infeasible without abolishing most government spending and substantially increasing taxes,” she continued. “At the same time, Trump has called for a tax plan that would increase the debt by $9 trillion. Trump has since walked away from the pledge to exhaust the U.S. debt but it still leaves observers wondering where he is focusing: on austerity or on fiscal expansion?”

Of course a Trump presidency would be very different to a Marine Le Pen one in France or those of other European nationalist leaders, but the types of uncertainties they would create for investors seems likely to be similar.

The one thing markets like least is uncertainty, so investors may do well to follow the news on various elections particularly closely over the coming months. 

Part of the Bonhill Group.