Created in association with Old Mutual Wealth
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The data for these graphs are collected on a monthly basis from around 20 global fund groups. The data is gathered by Old Mutual Wealth and processed and analysed by our in-house research team.
Every respondent gives the house view on a series of indices, answering the question: do you think that in 12 months time this index will have performed positively, negatively or are you largely neutral. We have taken that data and turned it into a sentiment number: -100 means every respondent is bearish; +100 means everyone is bullish; 0 means the bulls and the bears are evenly matched.
Anything from 25 or more we have designated bullish (green) on the graphs; anything from -25 or below bearish (red).
As demonstrated below, there is some quite strong consensus among fund management houses. On the positive side, almost all fund managers believe Europe and Japan markets will be up in a years time. There is also wide agreement that the US stock markets, both large and small cap, will be down. GEM and Asian Equities are strong and consistent, but less so than Europe and Japan.