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lisbon investors fear deflation inflation switch

In line with the eurozone average, Portugal’s inflation has declined in recent months. Data from Statistics Portugal shows the country’s core rate (year-on-year CPI, excluding unprocessed food and energy) fell steadily during 2012, and dropped below 1% in March and April this year.

Expert Investor Portugal attendees expect the trend to continue. When asked whether rising or falling prices were “the greater threat”, 70% selected deflation – in line with voting on this topic at other Expert Investor Europe conferences in the first and second quarters of 2013 (see table below).

More than half of Lisbon delegates said there was a risk of deflation over the next two years, compared with just a quarter who feared an inflationary spike during the same period.

However, on a three-year time horizon, more than two-thirds of fund selectors said rising prices would be problematic, reflecting the concern of many investors that central bank stimulus programmes around the world will eventually trigger a significant rise in inflation.

Expert Investor Portugal delegates gave their views on a range of macroeconomic and investment topics. Platinum members can view a full breakdown of the voting data here.

Which is the greater threat?
  Inflation Deflation
 Sweden (Q1)  21%  79%
 Bilbao (Q2)  26%  74%
 Geneva (Q2)  27%  73%
 Portugal (Q2)  30%  70%
 Italy (Q2)  32%  68%
 Barcelona (Q1)  47%  53%
 Belgium (Q1)  57%  43%

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